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Covid-19: Outbreak Could Peak In 45 Days, Cuomo Predicts

The novel coronavirus outbreak is going to get worse before it gets better, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo is cautioning.

With testing ramped up, New York now easily has the most cases of COVID-19 in the nation.

With testing ramped up, New York now easily has the most cases of COVID-19 in the nation.

Photo Credit: Governor's Office
The current hospitalization rate for those who have tested COVID-19 positive in New York, as of Tuesday, Match 17.

The current hospitalization rate for those who have tested COVID-19 positive in New York, as of Tuesday, Match 17.

Photo Credit: Governor's Office

Gov. Cuomo's news briefing on Tuesday, March 17.

Photo Credit: Governor's Office

Globally, there have been 197,225 confirmed COVID-19 cases of coronavirus, including 5,921 in the United States that resulted in 100 deaths. (See first image above.)

In New York, despite efforts to curtail the spread of the virus, the number of positive tests spiked overnight to approximately 1,700.

Citing health experts, Cuomo said that the virus is going to continue to be a plague on the country, with the number of cases potentially not peaking for approximately 45 days.

Cuomo said that this could pose a problem, as New York may be running out of time to allocate the necessary hospital beds.

Cuomo said that the state is now shifting its focus to prioritizing the healthcare system, which may be inadequate if the virus continues to spread at its current rate. The governor noted that something similar happened to Italy, which has basically shutdown do the virus.

“Right now we have 53,000 hospital beds and 3,000 ICU beds,” he said. “This may not peak for around 45 days, so we might need between 55,000 and 111,000 hospital beds and as many as 18,600 to 37,200 ICU beds. That remains the challenge and the challenge is daunting.

Currently, the hospitalization rate for those who test positive for COVID-19 hovers between approximately 15 and 19 percent, though it has been on the rise.

The current hospitalization rate for New York's 1,374 cases is 19 percent. (See second image above.)

“We have to continue to flatten the curve, continue to reduce density and that might mean more closings. The numbers are showing the expected flow into hospitals and it’s clear we can’t manage that flow. How do you reduce that flow? Close down more interaction among people.

“We’re not there yet, but we have to get down the rate of this spread, because whatever we do on the hospital side, we cannot accommodate the numbers that will be demanded of the hospital system.”

Cuomo said he and state health officials are working to identify options to accommodate an expected surge of cases and hospitalizations. He’s also enlisting former nurses, doctors and medical students to be on-call for when numbers swell and hospitals are overwhelmed.

"There is a curve," Cuomo said, referencing to the virus' infection rate. "I've said that curve is going to turn into a wave and that wave is going to crash on the hospital system. I've said that from day one because that's what the numbers would dictate."

The governor called on the federal government to step up and offer an assist to states that are struggling with the spread of coronavirus.

“We cannot do this on our own. I built airports, I built bridges, we have made this government do things that it's never done before,” he said. “This government has done summersaults, it's performed better than ever before. I am telling you, this government cannot meet this crisis without the resources and capacity of the federal government. 

"I spoke to the president this morning again. He is ready, willing, and able to help. I've been speaking with members of his staff late last night, early this morning. We need their help, especially on the hospital capacity issue.

“We're not Democrats and we're not Republicans. We are Americans at the end of the day. That's who we are and that's who we are when we are at our best so this hyper-sensitivity about politics and reading every comment and wanting to pit one against the other - there is no time for this.”

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